Abstract
Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) are good for shoppers. For many D2C shops, meaning online shops that sell directly to consumers, taking part often does not pay. This article reviews published studies, industry data and legal developments from the UK and Germany. It points to four findings. The market is barely growing: for the UK, one vendor survey points to a fall in 2026 spending intentions [7], and Germany's retail association expected its first-ever decline for 2025 [1]. Ad prices rise in the sale week: the median brand in one dataset paid 59% more per 1,000 impressions [8]. Shoppers push purchases back to sales events [5]. And BFCM customers rarely return: 4% within twelve months in one retailer dataset [13]. We also set out the counter-arguments and say how far they reach. We close with a way to use BFCM anyway: not for the day's revenue, but to win new publishers through affiliate marketing who then sell for you all year round.
1. Introduction: the situation, the question and the method
Every November the pressure feels the same: all your competitors cut prices, so you must join in. Behind that sits a question we test against the evidence. Does a typical D2C shop actually make money on BFCM, or does it buy revenue that earns little in the end?
Method. We reviewed published studies, industry reports, press releases from trade bodies and companies, and legal texts and court decisions. All sources are listed at the end with links and marked in the text as [1], [2] and so on. They are not all equally robust: some come from trade bodies or research institutes, others from software vendors with their own interests. For each figure we therefore say what sample it comes from. Where we have no verified source, we say so and label the statement as our assessment or experience. A figure from one dataset applies to that dataset, not to every shop.
This article is not legal advice. The chapter on pricing reflects the state of our research. Have any pricing strategy checked by a solicitor before you put it into practice.
Terms used in the text: CPM is the price of 1,000 ad impressions. CPC is the price per click. CAC is the cost of winning a new customer. ROAS is the revenue each pound of advertising brings. Customer lifetime value is the total value a customer brings over time. A reference price is the price a discount is compared against.
2. The market: BFCM is losing steam
2.1 United Kingdom
Adobe Digital Insights data put UK online spending at roughly £3.8 billion across the four days from Black Friday to Cyber Monday 2025 (more precisely £3.79 billion, quoted through a secondary source) [6]. For 2026, the software vendor Omnisend reports in a survey an expected fall in total spending of 32% to £9.9 billion, or £267 per shopper against £390. These are stated intentions from a vendor survey with no sample size given [7]. We read it as a signal, not as a forecast to build a budget on.
GfK's Neil Bellamy said in October 2025 that many shoppers now hold back major purchases for one of the sales events [5].
2.2 Germany, for comparison
Germany's retail association HDE expected €5.8 billion for Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025, just under 2% less than the year before, which would be the first fall since records began in 2016. It was based on an IFH Köln survey of more than 1,000 online shoppers in October 2025 [1]. That is a forecast, and we found no actual figure. In a Kantar survey for Idealo (2,010 consumers aged 18 to 64, August and September 2025), the average budget fell 7% to €298, and 45% called Black Friday outdated in a crisis (38% a year earlier) [2]. Both sources are in German.
Our reading: the market is barely growing and shoppers are more cautious. It is not the same everywhere, but several sources point in the same direction.
3. Rising advertising costs
Around Black Friday, many shops turn up their advertising at once. In an auction such as Meta's, that pushes prices up.
| Source | Dataset | Finding |
|---|---|---|
| Lebesgue [8] | the largest Meta advertisers on the platform, US$22.6 million of ad spend (September to November 2025) | The median brand paid 59% more per 1,000 impressions in Black Friday week than in September, and 84% more on Black Friday itself. 90% of brands paid at least 10% more. The rise began in the week of 10 November. |
| Supermetrics [9] | more than 5,000 retailers, US$675 million of Meta spend (September to December 2025) | Fashion retailers spent 2.8 times their September level in Black Friday week, which made up 13.4% of their September to December spend. Click prices rose by 10% to 31% by Black Friday week, depending on sector. |
| Conjura [10] | retailers in several categories, 2018 to 2020 (older data) | The cost of winning a new customer was 13% higher in Black Friday week than at other times of the year (paid search and paid social). |
These data come mostly from the US or give no country, so they are not pure UK or German figures. The direction is the same in all three.
The counter-argument. There is contrary evidence, and it belongs here. According to Lebesgue, the median brand's cost per purchase fell 20% in Black Friday week because shoppers bought far more often [8]. The analytics firm Tinuiti (US, more than US$4 billion of annual ad spend) reports that Meta's price per 1,000 impressions in the seven days before Thanksgiving was 13% lower than a year earlier, though it rose for 37% of the advertisers studied [11].
How do we read this? Cost per purchase is as reported by Meta, the discount is not counted, and it says nothing about whether the customer comes back. Lebesgue itself notes that its data do not isolate a single cause, and that scaling decisions should follow margin rather than CPM [8]. Advertising can look efficient at BFCM because more people buy, but this figure does not show what price they bought at.
4. Shifted demand: shoppers wait for sales
Once customers know discounts are coming in November, they hold their bigger purchases until then.
- GfK's Neil Bellamy said in October 2025 that many UK shoppers now delay major purchases until one of the sales events [5].
- In a survey of 1,003 people in Germany (aged 16 to 65, Appinio for Blackfriday.de, 2024), 87% often put off larger purchases until Black Friday [3]. The client was a deals portal, so read the figure with care.
- A 2023 study by Tink (no sample stated) found that more than half of German consumers wait specifically for Black Friday [4].
Our reading: part of BFCM revenue is not won but moved. It is missing before and after. These surveys do not show how large that part is.
5. Loyalty: do BFCM customers come back?
5.1 The academic basis
Michael Lewis studied data from a newspaper publisher and an online grocer in the Journal of Marketing Research in 2006. His finding: the deeper the discount used to win a customer, the lower the repeat purchase rate and the customer's value [12]. (We could not retrieve the full text, so we give the direction of the finding from its summary, without the figures.)
5.2 What industry data show
| Source | Dataset | Finding |
|---|---|---|
| Ometria [13] | the vendor's customer base in fashion, beauty, lifestyle and specialty retail; analysis window 19 November to 2 December 2025; number of retailers and countries not stated | 4% of 2024 Black Friday new customers bought again within 12 months. They returned six times less often than typical new customers. Only 11% of 2024 Black Friday shoppers came back for Black Friday 2025. Of those who bought again, 75% waited until the next Black Friday. |
| uptain [14] | behavioural data from more than 3,000 online shops (DACH, meaning Germany, Austria and Switzerland); period not clear | 22.59% of Black Friday first-time buyers bought again within twelve months, and 77.41% never did. |
| Tresl [15] | 106 Shopify shops, BFCM 2024; country not stated | 13.95% of BFCM new customers ordered again within six months, against 19.2% of other new customers. |
| Optimove [16] | BFCM 2021 data, no sample stated | After six months, 33% of existing customers had bought again, but only 16% of new customers. |
| Conjura [10] | retailers in several categories, 2018 to 2020 | Six-month customer value was 9% lower for BFCM customers, and the repeat rate 5% lower. |
The values differ widely because definitions, time windows and shops differ. You cannot read one uniform percentage from them. The direction is the same, though: BFCM new customers come back less often than other new customers. For the uptain figure we could not open the vendor's own page and rely on a third-party report.
5.3 The counter-argument
Anderson and Simester (2004, Marketing Science) ran three field experiments with durable goods sold through a mail-order catalogue. Deeper discounts raised later purchases by first-time customers but lowered them for established customers [17]. That supports discounting to win new customers, with one important limit: the greatest damage falls on loyal customers, whom you train to buy only in the sale. The study also concerns catalogue sales rather than online retail.
5.4 The value of customer data
It is often said that BFCM pays because you "buy" customer data for later campaigns. That benefit is worth only as much as those customers go on to buy. On the data above, a large share of BFCM new customers do not. That is our assessment of the evidence.
6. Hidden costs: returns, brand and trust
Returns. A survey by the EHI Retail Institute of 124 online retailers in DACH (summer 2025) found that a return costs up to €10 for 53.3% of them and up to €20 for another 13.9%, while 27% cannot put a figure on it [18]. The University of Bamberg's returns management research group estimates around 550 million returns in Germany in 2025 (quoted through Business Punk) [19]. We could not verify what the return rate is specifically after BFCM. A 2022 UK study by Novuna reports that a third of shoppers regretted at least one Black Friday purchase (no sample given in the report) [20].
Brand. Aggressive discounting can cheapen a brand. That is a common assumption, which we cannot back with clear studies; the research is mixed. Some brands treat BFCM differently on purpose. The US retailer REI has kept its stores closed on Black Friday since 2015 [21]. The cosmetics brand Deciem closed its stores and took its website offline on Black Friday 2019, though it offered 23% off for the rest of November [22].
Trust. Discounts have to be believable. Which? looked at 227 deals from eight large UK retailers in the 2023 Black Friday fortnight. 92% were the same price or cheaper at other times of the year [23]. Which? also found 14 deals quoting a higher "was" price that the retailer had not charged in the previous twelve months, and in six in ten deals the higher reference price had applied for less than half the time [23]. In Germany an Idealo analysis (about 10,000 products, 2024, reported by Utopia, in German) found that 59% of products had at least one day in November cheaper than Black Friday, with an average saving of 7% [24]. If you advertise big discounts, expect shoppers to check.
7. Interim conclusion: the thesis
From the data we draw a thesis, which we state as our assessment: BFCM is an advantage for shoppers, not automatically for the shop. Margin falls, a large share of customers do not return, and the customers won are mostly price-minded first-time buyers with high expectations and little attachment. This is no criticism of those customers. Anyone who shops on a discount day is behaving rationally. For the shop it means only that the day's revenue is not a good yardstick.
8. Honesty on prices: what is allowed and what is wise
Our position: customers should not be misled. Raising prices shortly before BFCM so that you can show bigger discounts is dishonest and legally risky.
8.1 What UK law requires
The consumer protection provisions of the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Act 2024 (DMCC Act) came into force on 6 April 2025 [30]. Since then the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) can enforce consumer law directly and fine a company up to 10% of its global turnover [29][30].
In July 2026 the High Court decided CMA v Emma (30 July 2026). It rejected the CMA's fixed volume requirement for reference pricing. According to a law firm's account, whether a reference price is genuine depends on factors such as how long the higher price was offered, the market, the product, and the trader's honest belief that it was a realistic selling price [31]. The case was run under the old law, so it says nothing about the CMA's new powers. We rely on a secondary source and could not open the judgment itself.
The Chartered Trading Standards Institute (CTSI) guidance for traders on pricing practices, updated in April 2026, says a claimed saving must be genuine. It lists factors such as how long and where the higher price was offered, how recently, whether it was seasonal, and whether there were significant sales at that price. It is not binding [33].
The government announced on 9 August 2026 that it is considering adding fake "was" prices, invented discounts and misleading recommended retail prices to the list of banned practices. A consultation was announced for the autumn. We found no sign that it has started, and this is not yet a decision [32].
8.2 The thought of "raising prices early"
Some shops think about raising prices in September or October, leaving them there, and so earning in advance the margin they give back at BFCM. We discuss this plainly, without recommending it:
- Legally. The sources we reviewed assess reference prices case by case, on the factors above, not by a fixed number of days. A price rise made only to create a discount is exactly what that test looks for. What counts is whether the rise is a real, lasting price change at which you also actually sell, and not a decoy. The penalties are high (up to 10% of global turnover [29]).
- Commercially. If you are permanently dearer, you lose eleven months a year in price comparisons. That applies in particular when AI assistants search for the best price.
- The more honest and wiser alternative: keep the list price stable, protect margin through lower advertising costs, and give the price advantage selectively through exclusive publisher codes.
9. Affiliate marketing: how shops can still use BFCM profitably
9.1 BFCM as a door-opener to new publishers
In affiliate marketing, a partner, called a publisher, earns a commission when a purchase comes through their recommendation. Publishers can be newsletters, deal sites, creators, communities or cashback sites. The real gain at BFCM is then not the day's revenue but the new partner. A strong, exclusive offer brings publishers' attention to the shop. They stay afterwards and bring customers, sales and revenue all year round.
US figures show how big the channel is. According to Adobe Analytics, affiliate and partner channels made up 21.8% of US online revenue on Cyber Monday 2025 (20.3% in 2024). The category includes social media influencers. Across the whole 2025 holiday season it was 20.4% (17.6% in 2024) [26][27]. These are US figures.
9.2 Voucher codes as a trigger to buy
According to industry data from a large affiliate network, 36% of retail orders on Black Friday 2023 used a voucher code (33% the year before). The data give no country [25]. Voucher codes therefore matter at BFCM. For the shop they are an advantage: they make it visible in the answers of search engines and AI assistants and give the buyer a reason to buy from you rather than a competitor. How that connects with AI is covered in our article Who recommends you when AI answers?.
Cashback sites are among the best-known BFCM partners: TopCashback and Quidco in the UK, PAYBACK and iGraal in Germany. We can document it only for PAYBACK, which cites more than 35 million customers, up to 40 times points and more than 100 online partners in its Black Week (16 to 30 November 2026) [28]. We found no verified figures for the other sites and quote none.
9.3 The building blocks
- Start early. In our experience, larger publishers and creators plan their campaigns in the autumn and their calendars fill up early. That is experience from working with publishers, not a documented industry figure. If you come early with a strong offer, you are in the calendar.
- A commission bonus rather than a deeper discount for everyone. A commission bonus costs money only on a real sale. A discount in your own shop costs money on every purchase, including loyal customers who would have bought anyway.
- Exclusive, permanent codes. The campaign itself may be time-limited, for example a commission bonus or a special offer. The publisher's exclusive code then stays active permanently. That gives the publisher a reason to keep promoting the shop, and AI systems find the code all year round.
- Protect loyal customers. The campaign runs through publishers and their communities, not as a discount for everyone in your own shop. That way loyal customers are not trained to buy only in the sale (see [17]).
- Pay only on a sale. Instead of expensive advertising in the dearest week of the year, the shop pays only when something is actually sold.
How selecdoo helps. selecdoo takes your shop to the publishers who look for BFCM offers and keep promoting afterwards.
10. Worked example: a discount for everyone against a commission bonus through publishers
The example below is a model with our own assumptions. It is not market data, and the results depend heavily on your numbers.
Assumptions: basket £60. Contribution margin before discount and commission: 35%, so £21 per order. Advertising costs are not counted in either case.
Scenario A: 20% off for everyone in your own shop. It generates 1,000 orders. 40% of them (400) would have come anyway without the campaign, for example from loyal customers. 600 orders are additional.
Scenario B: a commission bonus through publishers. It generates 300 additional orders through new publishers. There is no discount for everyone in the shop. Commission: 10% plus a 5 percentage point bonus, 15% in total. The publishers' exclusive code includes an offer for buyers. We have left that out here for simplicity.
| A: 20% off for everyone | B: commission bonus through publishers | |
|---|---|---|
| Orders | 1,000 (600 of them additional) | 300 (all additional) |
| Cost per order | £12.00 discount | £9.00 commission (15% of £60) |
| Contribution per order | £9.00 | £12.00 |
| Total contribution | £9,000 | £3,600 |
| The shop would have earned without the campaign | £8,400 (400 × £21) | £0 |
| Additional profit | £600 | £3,600 |
| When do the costs arise? | on every order, including loyal customers | only on an additional order |
What the sum shows: a discount for everyone also pays for the orders that would have come anyway. Here only £600 of extra profit is left from £9,000 of contribution. A commission bonus arises only on orders that would not have come without it. Whether 300 additional publisher orders are realistic in your shop depends on offer, timing and partners. Put in your own numbers.
11. Recommendations for D2C shops
- Do the sums before the campaign. Work out margin, the share of loyal customers and advertising costs before you set discounts. Judge success by profit, not by the day's revenue.
- Protect loyal customers. Target discounts rather than offering them to all, and do not train your loyal customers to wait for the sale.
- Set prices honestly. Use genuine reference prices and do not raise prices artificially ahead of the campaign.
- Use BFCM to win publishers. Offer partners a commission bonus or an exclusive special offer.
- Issue exclusive, permanent codes. The code stays active after BFCM and brings sales all year.
- Watch repeat purchases, not just revenue. Track how many BFCM new customers come back within six and twelve months.
- Plan early. A timetable for next year: set the offer and commission model in September, approach and brief publishers in October, launch the campaign in November, and review in December, keeping the partners who worked.
- If BFCM 2026 is already close: Black Friday is on 27 November and Cyber Monday on 30 November. Concentrate on a few partners with a clear offer, and use the campaign as the start of a lasting relationship.
12. Conclusion
BFCM is good for shoppers but, for many D2C shops, a business that does not pay automatically. The market is barely growing, advertising costs more in the sale week, shoppers push purchases back, and on the data available BFCM new customers come back less often. There are counter-arguments, such as lower cost per purchase and the effect on first-time customers, but they do not change the direction.
The way out is not a bigger discount for everyone but winning partners. Through affiliate marketing a shop can use BFCM to win new publishers who stay afterwards, paid only on a sale and with exclusive, permanent codes. The gain is then not the Black Friday revenue but the partner who sells all year.
Sources
- Handelsverband Deutschland (HDE), press release, in German (17 November 2025): Black Friday und Cyber Monday: HDE rechnet zu Aktionstagen mit Umsatz von 5,8 Milliarden Euro
- Lebensmittelpraxis, in German (20 October 2025), on Idealo/Kantar: Konsumverhalten: Deutsche planen geringere Ausgaben für Black Friday
- Lebensmittelpraxis, in German (18 November 2024), on Appinio for Blackfriday.de: Black Friday am 29. November: 14 Prozent der Verbraucher wollen mehr als 500 Euro ausgeben
- Retail News, in German (20 November 2023), on Tink: Auswirkungen von Lebenshaltungskosten und Retouren auf den Black Friday
- Gazette News, PA (2025), on GfK: Consumer confidence rises ahead of Black Friday sales
- Whymatters, on Adobe Digital Insights: Black Friday statistics
- Retail Gazette (3 November 2026), on an Omnisend survey: UK Black Friday spending forecast
- Lebesgue (2025): Analysis of Meta advertising costs around Black Friday 2025
- Supermetrics: Black Friday Retail Playbook
- Home of Direct Commerce (23 November 2021), on Conjura: Customer acquisition costs for Black Friday week highest in the year with LTV falling
- Tinuiti (5 December 2025): Black Friday / Cyber Monday recap
- Lewis, M. (2006): Customer Acquisition Promotions and Customer Asset Value. Journal of Marketing Research 43(2), 195–203: doi.org/10.1509/jmkr.43.2.195
- Ometria (2025): Black Friday 2025 data
- uptain (2025): E-Report Black Friday 2025 (we could not open this page; figures as reported by a third party)
- Tresl: BFCM 2025
- Optimove (11 October 2022): Why you should invest more in your existing clients on Black Friday and Cyber Monday
- Anderson, E. T., Simester, D. I. (2004): The Long-Run Effects of Promotion Depth on New Versus Established Customers. Marketing Science 23(1), 4–20: DOI 10.1287/mksc.1030.0040, summary: RePEc
- EHI Retail Institute, press release, in German (27 November 2025): Zwischen Retouren und Rentabilität
- Business Punk, in German (28 November 2025): Die dunkle Seite von Black Friday & Co: 550 Millionen Retouren in 2025
- InternetRetailing (21 December 2022), on a study by Novuna Consumer Finance: Report on regret after Black Friday purchases
- Bigblue: The pros and cons of Black Friday and Cyber Monday
- Bustle (2019): Beauty company Deciem is boycotting Black Friday for this important reason
- Which? (26 November 2024): Nine in 10 Black Friday deals cheaper or same price at other times of the year
- Utopia, in German, on Idealo: Black Friday: Echte Schnäppchen von Scheinrabatten unterscheiden
- Industry data from a large affiliate network (30 November 2023): Ten trends from Black Friday and Cyber Weekend 2023
- Adobe (2 December 2025), US: Cyber Monday hits record
- Adobe (7 January 2026), US: Holiday shopping season
- PAYBACK GmbH, press release, in German (2 November 2026): Presseportal
- Competition and Markets Authority, GOV.UK (7 April 2025): CMA to boost consumer and business confidence as new consumer protection regime comes into force
- CMS (13 March 2025): The DMCC Act: consumer elements come into force from 6 April 2025
- Lewis Silkin (3 August 2026): UK consumer law revolution: reference prices, Emma Sleep case update
- GOV.UK (9 August 2026): PM starts roll out of "everyday fixes" on the cost of living, ending rip-off discounts and subscription traps
- Chartered Trading Standards Institute, Business Companion: Guidance for traders on pricing practices
Note: sources were retrieved on 3 November 2026 unless stated otherwise. US figures are labelled as such. The legal notes are not legal advice.